Growth in tourism revenue in the Navarre Beach area has been due mostly to inflation rather than real tourist activity since early 2020. At that time, the area (and the rest of the world) experienced a major market crash; the subsequent recovery of which drove inflation upward and ultimately stalled the tourism market in the area by the beginning of 2021.
Looking at the tourist development tax revenue analysis provided by the county shows volatility and strong seasonality, and the narrative seems to be higher lows and higher highs mean a steady increase.
This (incorrect) over simplification has major implications when it impacts other sectors and affects government decision-making, which it has; but that discussion is for another time.
I modeled the seasonality for the Navarre Beach area so that I could make the correct adjustments to the tourist development tax revenue data after removing the effects of inflation.
After removing the noise of seasonality we can see the true performance of Navarre Beach tourism and note the effects inflation continues to have.
The pandemic era was an unnecessary emotional reaction which threw a wrench in the operations and daily lives of the entire world. The following market correction which drove the acceleration in inflation is still affecting us to this day as real tourism revenue continues to downtrend while we are simultaneously in the midst of a housing bubble that is slowly bursting and will likely continue to drag on for another two years.
References:
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL, June 4, 2026.
- Santa Rosa County, Florida Clerk of Court and Comptroller. (2026). Tourist Development Tax Analysis. https://santarosaclerk.com/financial-reporting/
Christopher Woodward Research 